Throughout the week, we’ve been slow to close the door on snow potential for this upcoming weekend. We continue to tow that line. The issue is this: we’ll be watching a somewhat uncommon east to west movement of a large storm over Eastern Canada, and the precise timing of this westward motion, along with its interaction with two other energetic disturbances, will have great impact on New England’s weekend weather.

For the time being, the tune is cold and dry. Arctic air continues spilling southward on a steady northwest wind that has gusted over 40 mph at times, and created Thursday wind chill values of as cold as 30 degrees below zero in the North Country of New England! Winds will slowly subside overnight Thursday night, with gusts to 30 mph, and similar winds will continue on Friday, meaning wind chill values will hover in the single digits to teens from north to south – not comfy, but better than Thursday’s feeling. Dry weather will continue into Saturday – when winds diminish significantly and the “feels like temperature” ends up close to the actual high in the 20s…some 20 degrees warmer than Thursday felt – before we turn our attention to the next storm.

The timeframe we’re watching is late Saturday night through Sunday morning. The storm has already developed, but is in its infancy in the western Gulf of Mexico, producing day-long heavy rain along the Texas coast, and poised to shift east while gathering strength from the warm Gulf waters and available moisture. All the while, the deep, cold storm over Eastern Canada that helped to shove our cold air across the border this week will be slowly moving west, and this will change the atmospheric steering flow. The question for New England hinges upon how quickly this westward movement occurs – faster movement opens the door for the northwest side of the large developing storm lifting out of the Gulf to move through Southern New England. Though there are some uncertainties, there are also a series of parameters I use in composing the forecast, and you can see a streaming video of my technical discussion outlining the potential in the video window on my personal weather page. Suffice to say that if everything lines up correctly, up to a foot of snow would be possible in parts of Southeastern New England, though chances are good reality will fall short of that, and in fairness, one could make an equal case for the storm to miss New England entirely! The weather pattern, though, suggests at least some snow should fall over Southeastern New England Saturday night and early Sunday.

Farther south, an epic snowstorm is likely in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, where more than two feet of snow is possible. If the storm strengthens quickly enough, the stakes for the Mid-Atlantic from New Jersey to Norfolk, VA, would rise to potential blizzard conditions, rather than the milder possible solution of 6″-12″. I’ll keep you posted! -Matt