A big upper low in the midwest is diving south and will take 3 days to finally reach the coast. This low will push energy, lift and moisture up the Atlantic seaboard for a strong developing low at the surface which will become our Weekend Nor’easter! High pressure is currently in place in Quebec, and is supplying dry air into New England with a light east-Northeast wind. Though clouds have moved in…enough dry air at the surface has prevented much rain from falling. The low level dry air will hold on as long as possible, before the rain will finally start to fill in southern New England later Saturday. The peak of the storm occurs Saturday Night into Sunday. It will be a chilly, raw, wet, and windy weekend ahead. Full impact of the storm will be felt at the coast! The full weather details inside!
Saturday will be a beautiful day in Northern New England. A mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 40’s nearing 50. A great day for skiing and being outside despite all of our talk of a weekend storm.
Southern New England will feature more clouds, thus cooler temps and a better chance of a few showers.
The best chance of showers Saturday will be south of the Pike…especially in Connecticut & RI. Any moisture could be in the form of a light freezing rain in the Berkshires early on. Rain will struggle to fall north of the Pike and eastern facing coastlines…thanks to the dry air being supplied from our high to the north. By mid-afternoon, rain will start to fill in a bit more in the south…so by sunset rain should be underway in southern New England. As our storm deepens south of the region, winds will be strengthening out of the east where winds be gusting to 30+mph or greater along southern New England’s coastline and hills.
Rain will become heavy Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gale force winds will be at the coast where winds will be gusting to 50+mph at the coast, especially on the Cape & Islands. Heaviest rain will be found in Eastern Massachusetts where 2-4″ could fall by the time this is all over. The rain and wind will be heavy Sunday morning and gradually work it’s way up the coast into Northern New England by Midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be a very chilly raw day as highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees in the rain and wind. The morning deluge will taper to a lighter rain south for the afternoon…so conditions will become slightly better for the St. Patrick’s parade in Southie….though it will still be raining on our Parade…the worst of the storm will be winding down.
Colder air being drawn into the backside of this low with a northeast wind will be just cold enough to change any rain over to accumulating snow in the northwest hills…the best place for accumulating wet snow will be in the Monadnock Region and the Berkshires later Sunday & Sunday Night…where over 3″ of snow could occur above 1500′
Seas will be building off the coast to 10-20 feet with this storm. A prolonged onshore wind will allow a piling of water during the high tides which will cause more beach erosion and the potential for minor coastal flooding.
Lingering rain could last into Monday Morning before our Low pulls away. High pressure will build in for the Midweek with sunshine and warming temps into the 50’s just in time for St. Patrick’s Day.
Don’t Forget!
Daylight Savings Begins this Weekend. We will be springing ahead 1 hour before going to bed Saturday Night…officially 2 AM Sunday….Sunset Sunday 6:49 PM!
A little bit of everything across the nation today
Yesterday I was thinking that steadier showers may try to make their way into southern New England tomorrow, but that does not look like the case (which is good news, right?). Northern New England may even hold on to some filtered sunshine through the day on Friday, while central and southern New England stay mostly cloudy.
My current thinking is that some patchy light rain and drizzle will develop on Friday night and early Saturday in southern New England. Steadier rainfall will move in during the afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast, reaching as far north as southern VT and NH. The heaviest rain arrives overnight Saturday and Sunday morning, falling the hardest south of the MA Pike. I’m still thinking rainfall totals will generally run between 1-2 inches for much of New England (lesser amounts in the North Country). A persistent onshore flow will continue through the weekend, gusting at times over 40 mph at the shore.
The storm will pass south and east of Nantucket on Monday. Counter-clockwise flow around this area of low pressure means that a north-northeast wind will wrap colder air down from eastern Canada into New England. In turn, we could be dealing with rain AND snow showers early Monday, although little if any snow should accumulate.
Random side note: 4 of my friends from my grad school days down at Florida State are visiting Beantown for the first time this weekend (2 coming from Texas, 2 from Florida)! I told them they should have come last weekend because the weather was perfect! Oh well, we’ll just need to have the umbrella handy while we tour the city. 
Will update you tomorrow on any changes. Have a great Thursday!
You’ll need those shades again today because the sun just won’t stop shining (and I’m ok with that)! We’re going on Day 5 of beautiful weather here in New England, but this trend won’t last too much longer, so enjoy it while it lasts. Take a look at the forecast diagram for Concord, NH above…notice the daily sunshine duration row…ZERO sun forecast for Friday through Monday. Check out other cities by heading to weather.us. Tomorrow will start off with sunshine, but clouds will increase throughout the day in advance of the next storm. Thursday night could feature a few light showers and areas of drizzle, but there is enough dry air in place across the region that the bulk of the moisture will hold off until the weekend.
Southern and central New England will get into steadier rain on Friday and Saturday, while northern New England stays mostly dry. Bands of heavier rain will organize on Saturday night, eventually spreading into northern New England. An east wind may increase to gale force overnight on Saturday too, bringing the potential for some minor coastal flooding. Periodic rain will continue on Sunday, possibly mixing with snow in the mountains of Maine, and tapering to showers in southern and central New England.
By the end of the weekend, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals between 1 to 3 inches. Combine that with a melting snow pack across the northern interior and flooding of our streams and rivers becomes a concern…certainly something to monitor over the coming few days.
On Monday, colder air will wrap around the backside of the storm allowing off and on rain showers to change to snow showers possibly as far south as the higher elevations of southern New England. The entire storm shifts east on Tuesday, meaning sunshine returns along with temperatures around 50!
Keep you posted on the weekend…have a great day!
What a gorgeous stretch of weather we’ve had across New England over the past several days! Temperatures yesterday soared well into the 50s and lower 60s. Portland, ME broke their previous record high of 54° (1995) reaching 56° and Bangor, ME tied their previous record of 52° (1995).
Today will be slightly cooler in the wake of a weak cold front passage overnight, but highs will still come into the 50s in southern New England, 40s central and 30s in the North Country. This cold front also brought in a reinforcing shot of dry air, and in turn, sunshine will be the rule once again this afternoon.
Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler along the coastline as a weak sea breeze develops during the afternoon. By Thursday, clouds will be on the increase, although aside from a few showers late in the day, we should remain dry. The steadier rain will hold off until after dark.
More rain and potentially some mountain snow is forecast for Friday and the weekend as a slow moving storm currently over the nation’s midsection will head towards New England, eventually moving east of the region by the beginning of next week. This could even mean some snow showers in the higher elevations of southern New England by Monday. We’ll have to watch this system closely and fine tune the details in the days to come, but for now, plan on unsettled weather Friday through Monday.
So enjoy today!
Now that is more like it! The feel of spring is in the air this weekend with temps averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. Mild daytime highs in the 40’s and 50’s and cool crisp nights below freezing is ideal weather for maple sugaring. March is known as maple sugar month after all. All over New England buckets are collecting sap from the maple trees.
With the Sun setting past 5:30 PM, The Sun is getting higher in the sky too. The stronger radiation reaching the Northen Hemisphere up to our latitudes, is really helping to eat away our snowcover. This is a good thing! We want to avoid any flooding problems with still plenty of snow in our Northwest hills. A heavy rain event with mild temperatures could create bad flooding from New England down through the Mid-Altlantic. This is something to watch out for in the coming weeks. Skiers should watch out for sunburn!
Higher elevations are closer to the stronger radiation….with the sunlight reflecting off the snow….this is a double whammy this time of year. Bring the sunscreen!
High Pressure has supplied a bone dry airmass this weekend with dewpoints in the teens, and relative humidities around 15-25%. This dry airmass, with a slight breeze helped to form scattered brushfires across New England yesterday…and could do it again today. After a cool start Sunday, more sunshine and mild temps by afternoon with highs once again in the 50’s! Some areas could approach 60 degrees in southern New England. The mild regime will last into Monday, before a cold front will bring in a cooler more typical March airmass for the midweek.
Another Pacific storm is slamming into California. This will take a while to reach us as it runs up against blocking high pressure across New England. This storm will reach us by Friday into Saturday as the low tracks south of us. Right now…it looks more wet than white, but this will be wrapping up into a potent storm providing gusty winds at the coast. It appears a series of lows will track south of us into Sunday. Temps will have a cooling trend, so by later Saturday into Sunday….some of the moisture may begin to mix with wet snow in the Northwest hills.
Looking ahead to Daylight Savings time which begins next Sunday Morning (2 AM). We will be springing ahead 1 hour.. the sun will be setting at 6:49….so gone will be the early sunsets….with more sunlight to end our days coming home from work or school!
Officially 2 more weeks until the Vernal Equinox…only 13 days away! Winter is simply runnig out of time. The winter pattern we have seen for most of the winter has broken down. The Sun is getting stronger, and there is little Arctic air in North America. The back of winter has been broken…but there is still a little more gas left in the tank which we still have to empty before we will really be into spring. So while there is not alot of cold air in the pattern, the atmophere will still remain active as we transition from winter to spring. There is still plenty of high latitude blocking, with an active subtropical jetstream delivering el-nino type storms into the nation. This is creating a split flow to the jet…which could easily come together off the east coast and direct storms up the northeast if everything comes together just right….with our next chance for storm development being next weekend.
Spring fever abounds this weekend! Enjoy it. It’s a sign of things to come, but just not immediately….in fact, we may likely not be this warm again until the end of March! Cooler air to come….just not cold. This has been the case most of the winter….cool not cold….thus snow….just not accumulating. What a meteorological headache this winter has been. Nice for Mother Nature to throw us all a bone!
With temps in the 40’s and 50’s during the day, and lows near freezing with clear cool nights, the weather is perfect for Maple Sugaring! Can you think of a better way to spend the weekend, teaching the kids what life was like in the early 1800’s?! A time when the country was being settled. A time when the kids had to work too!
Historians at Old Sturbridge Village will demonstrate maple sugar making at the Village’s own working “Sugar Camp” from 10:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays each weekend in March. Visitors can see the entire sugar-making process, from tapping the trees to “sugaring off,” and will learn why maple sugar was more commonly used than maple syrup in early New England.
Some early farm families, especially in northern New England, tapped 100 trees or more for a yield of 400 pounds of sugar each season. Women and children helped with the sugaring, and it was often a social occasion for friends and neighbors. The children’s favorite taste treat – maple snow – was actually the result of testing the syrup’s consistency before granulating it for storage, according to Old Sturbridge Village historians.
The maple sap flows best when the days are above freezing and the nights are below freezing. Each maple tree can produce up to 20 gallons of sap per tap during an average year, with each tap yielding an average of four pounds of sugar per season. It takes 40 gallons of sap (or more) to make a gallon of syrup.
Crystal Blue Skies over Mount Washington, NH this Friday afternoon
Ok, maybe not the shorts, although I’m hoping to play some pick up bball on Saturday, so we’ll see.
A few clouds will dot the sky on Sunday, especially in northern New England, where we may see a sprinkle or flurry along the Canadian border. Temperatures will once again rise well into the 40s and lower 50s, so enjoy!
A cold front will cross the region on Monday with little fanfare, but what it will do is knock the temperatures back down to seasonable levels on Tuesday. And that’s where they’ll remain through the end of next week. Otherwise, a relatively quiet weather pattern will persist with no major storms on the horizon.
Have a great weekend!
The blocking pattern we have been stuck in for the past month is finally starting to break down. Through much of the month of February we were on the more favorable side of the block as we watched storms stay south. As we know, last week we got slammed with heavy snow in the mountains and damaging winds at the coast. I am pleased to say that they weather looks a little more progressive in the coming days…meaning it keeps moving along…which is what weather is supposed to do. Before we get out of this atmospheric traffic jam, there are still a few pieces of energy we have to watch. Read More of the Forecast Discussion Inside
1st, the weakening low which is sitting over us this weekend. This low has done a loop through New England providing the hurricane force winds Thursday, and is now looping back into New England this weekend as a much weaker low. It is still providing clouds and periodic snow showers…mixing with rain showers at the coast. Clouds will remain in place Sunday…with a few spotty breaks of sun. Most snow showers will remain in the North and West.
We turn our attention to energy coming out of the Gulf and off the coast of Florida. This area of low pressure will march up the east coast and eventually merge with our current decaying low off the coast of New England tonight. This low will strengthen and track just south of Nova Scotia Monday Morning. Precipitation will start off as snow with several inches possible in Maine tonight. The snow will be pushing south and arriving in Southern New England by dawn. Snow will mix over to rain during late morning- midday and afternoon hours. Gale force winds will be at the coast…but nothing nearly as strong as what we just saw….which looking back upon it was a very special and rare weather event. Many are still without power in storm stricken communities. Any rain will start to mix back over to snow with the setting sun Monday…allowing for a few more inches of snow possibly in the NW hills…before ending.
I am expecting a couple slushy inches on the front end of this. A general 1-3″ snowfall along and north of the Pike, with 3-6″ in VT, NH, and Maine with 6+” of snow in the far northern mountains.
Tuesday looks dry and seasonal…with lingering stratocumulus still around. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm…this one will likely stay well south of us.
Another Pacific storm will be taking a more southern track again by the Midweek. This storm will be pushing off the Carolina Coast Tuesday-Wednesday. Believe it or not, but the Mid-Atlantic states which have already seen their all-time snowiest winter…are likely going to see more snow. Strong winds from NJ to Delmarva Peninsula to the Carolina Capes too! The northen fringe of the snow will make it all the way up to Southern New England… for a brief burst of light snow in the Tuesday Night to Wednesday morning time frame. This storm will allow the seas to build to 10+feet well offshore…there could be some more splashover at high tide with these astronomincal high tides. By the way…Full Snow Moon tonight for the last night of February!
Pressure will be on the rise behind this departing low for skies to clear by next weekend. All in all…it looks like a quieter week, with less blocking, less extremes….as we March along through this winter…Only 20 days until spring!
Heavy snow continues to gradually shift northward after dropping up to two feet in some of the Berkshires, and will perform the same feat in the Green Mountains of Vermont, and when all is said and done, perhaps the White Mountains and Mahoosucs, as well.
Of course, my job is to look ahead to what nature will deal us next. I’m concerned with three W’s for Thursday…weight, wind, waves and wet.
1) WEIGHT: Anyone who received over a foot of new snow from Tuesday night/Wednesday’s event needs to be aware of the issue of rooftop weight. The snow was very heavy, as one round of shoveling can quickly attest to, and this snow will add weight to all structures. The concern comes with the inch or more of rain expected Thursday – starting up by mid-morning in some of Southern New England, and encompassing more areas by afternoon. Where a foot or more of snow fell, this new snowpack will absorb that rain and substantially increase in weight, making roof collapses a concern. For those who received over a foot of snow, flat roofs should be cleared before the rain arrives. For those who received over 18 inches, all rooftops should be cleared. Rain is likely even into the mountains.
2) WIND: A very strong storm will intensify quickly just south of New England. The media, in general, is hyping this storm. Let’s be clear that it will not be like the New England “Winter Hurricane” of 2005 that brought 110 mph winds to Cape Cod with thundersnow, with winds consolidated around the core. That was amazing. This storm will also be amazing, but not to the same degree, and will not be the same type of compact creature. Rather, heavy snow will hit New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania (eventually southwest CT, too) but New England will be dealt the wind. The difference in air pressure from this storm to a fair weather cell in Canada will help to produce wind gusts near 70 mph on the immediate coastlines of Eastern New England Thursday evening, producing damage and churning the seas.
3) WAVES: The strong wind will churn waves to 25-30 feet along the coast of Northern MA, New Hampshire and Maine! This will bring substantial beach erosion from battering surf, Thursday night through Saturday. Storm surge will accompany these waves and wind, and that will mean an increased risk of coastal flooding at each high tide cycle, especially Friday and Saturday.
4) WET: Finally, all of the rain later Thursday and Thursday night will make big puddles for hydroplaning, localized flooding, and perhaps some scattered river flooding where wet snow will melt in Central New Hampshire and Maine. Basement flooding will occur in homes prone to this, as well, thanks to the high water table.
Good Monday morning everybody! I hope you had a chance to enjoy the weather this weekend, because the overall pattern here in the Northeast will turn very unsettled starting tomorrow, lasting through this weekend. For Ski Country and all you snow lovers, get pumped – we could be talking about 2 to 3 FEET of snow across the mountains over the next week! And for those of you who may be getting a little sick of Old Man Winter, the official start to spring is only 26 days away…and we have mild sunshine to enjoy today!
Forecasting through this upcoming period is going to be very tricky though and at this point, it’s hard to be completely confident in how the weather is going to pan out over the next several days. So let’s start out with what we do know…
In the days ahead, a massive blocking pattern will evolve over the northeast United States. Essentially what this means is that a big upper level low is going to stall off our coastline, bringing unsettled weather to New England for an extended amount of time. The position of the upper level low will play a pivotal role in determining the magnitude and duration of each separate storm.
The first storm will impact New England’s weather tomorrow and Wednesday. Expect light snow to break out tomorrow morning, where a thin coating to an inch is possible outside of 495 especially by tomorrow’s morning commute. The precip will become steadier through the afternoon and evening with the heaviest expected to fall overnight Tuesday through midday Wednesday.
Snow will turn to rain along our southern New England coastlines, but continue as snow across the high terrain of the interior. I’d say we’re looking 1-3 sloppy inches across the interior of southern and central New England by Wednesday morning (outside of 495), with 3″-6″+ inches when you come back from the Berkshires and Green Mountains to the high terrain of north-central MA, southwest NH and the White Mountains.
Keep in mind that this is just one chunk of energy/moisture…more is on the way…
Another storm will develop in the Atlantic and get pulled into New England on Thursday night/Friday. The potential exists for another round significant snowfall, even in southern New England, along with flooding concerns as a persistent wind off the ocean combined with astronomically high tides piles up water at our coastlines.
Be prepared for some changes as the week wears on, and a lot of shorter updates on the blog as we nail down the details over the coming few days.
