The incredible warm and dry stretch weather is coming to an end unfortunately. It was amazing. The memories will get us through until the warmth returns again! But all good things come to an end…so we move on! A cold front is on the move tonight bringing clouds and a windshift. East winds will prevail Sunday with a mix of sun & clouds. The wind off the cooler water will guarantee a much cooler day across New England…with highs primarily in the 40’s North and Coast…with 50’s south…even some lwr 60’s in the CT river valley. Though it will be cooler, conditons will be mostly dry with brighter skies south and more clouds north, where there is the best chance of a shower or two.

We are watching a storm system in the midwest which has been bringing snow through the plains and strong storms from Texas, LA and AK. Cooler Polar air has pushed back into the USA and is colliding against the surge of unseasonal warmth in place along the eastern half of the country. As the cool continues to push up against this warmth, this low will track towards the mid-atlantic states and track south of New England Monday Night-Through Tuesday. Clouds along with scattered showers in the NW in advance of this storm will be in place Monday. But the real slug of rain moves through Monday Night-Tuesday.
This will come with about 1-2″ of rain…so the rain will be heavy at times. Gale force winds will occur along the coast at this time where winds will gust to 30-40 mph. Seas will build upto 15 feet off the coast.

There is high anxiety right now from those who have suffered flooding damage about any more water. The good news is this will not stall and keep moving. This will keep rain amounts much lower than the previous storm. There has been lots of dry air this week which has allowed the soil to recover and will be able to absorb most of this coming rain. The bad news is rivers are still running awfully high. They are just starting to go below flood stage and any heavy rain just might take these rivers out of their banks and go back into flood for a time.

Rain may mix with a bit of wet snow early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, look for increasing sunshine for the middle to end of the week with seasonably normal temperatures in the 40’s and lwr 50’s

Rumor has it that it’s possible to balance an egg on the day of the spring equinox, but this myth simply isn’t true.

The legend of standing a raw egg on its end on the first day of spring can be attributed to the Chinese. They believed that due to the sun’s equidistant position between the poles of the Earth at the time of the equinox, special gravitational forces apply.

While you may be able to balance an egg with patience on the day of the spring equinox, this can also be done on every other day of the year with the same results.

See ya later winter! We are saying a big hello to Spring this weekend! The Vernal Equinox officially is 1:32 PM. Today is the day the sun rises due east, and sets due west. The sun is shining directly over the Equator giving the Northern and Southern Hemispheres equal amount of day and night. The earth will now start to tilt a little more and more towards the sun as we approach thee Summer Solstice. Days will get longer and longer. Obviously, with the increased radiation from the Sun temps will be getting warmer.

Talk about warm! Today our temperatures will be about 20-25 degrees above normal! Many areas in the south this Saturday will have highs climbing to near 70 or above. Records will not be broken like yesterday, but it will feel warmer, especially along the coast..where a west wind should be able to hold off the seabreeze. This airmass is more typical of early June than late March! Enjoy it today, because a cold front moves through Sunday, bringing a wind shift a return to more seasonal spring like air.
What an early spring treat this week has been!

Spring Skiing this weekend with plenty of wide open terrain! Temps will be in the 50’s today with abundant sunshine. Bring the sunscreen, sunglasses and a light fleece. Loose granular and corn snow will soften as the day procedes. Most ski areas in Northern New England are close to 100% open…so just because winter is over and there is no snow in your backyard….conditions are epic for awesome time this weekend! Wish I could join you.

Flooding Rains and Damaging Winds moved through during the overnight hours. The worst of the rain and wind are over, but the region will still feel the grip of this Nor’easter through Monday with a series of significant impacts from this storm. The storm is stalling south of New England. High Pressure in Canada, with this Low to the south is producing pronounced and persistant onshore wind with very high seas and battering waves at the coast. A deep dip in the jetstream along the eastearn seaboard is directing moisture from the tropics into New England so periodic rain can be expected through Monday before the trough finally pushes far enough eastward that drier air can finally star to move in by Tuesday to provide a stellar week of weather ahead with temps in the 50’s nearing 60! Let’s Break It All Down Inside. It is another most impressive weather event!

Damaging Wind Overnight
The winds first ravaged Fairfield County, CT Saturday Afternoon. Winds were gusting to 65 mph in Greenwich toppling trees and powerlines. At that time JFK airport was receiving a gust to 75 mph! Numerous reports of damaging winds from NJ to the Bronx through Long Island. That damaging core of wind impacted the south coast last night…arriving late at night…with the Peak winds occurring between 12 AM and 6AM in the morning. Charlestown, RI reporting a gust of 75 mph. Blue Hill Observatory gusted to 68 mph. Winds over 60 mph lashed the Cape & Islands. These winds brought down trees, limbs and blew around many unsecured items. The winds are not damaging anymore….but they remain active with sustained winds 30-45 mph at the coast. Another round of strong winds from the Northeast is possible late tonight into tomorrow. A periodic gust over 50 mph for eastern facing beaches can not be ruled out until this storm pulls away.

Coastal Flooding
Seas have quickly built to 12 to 22 feet off the coast. These waves are huge that are being directed towards our eastern facing beaches with these persistant onshore winds. This piling of water will have a significant impact during High Tides along the entire coastline of Massachusetts. Most of the next high tides will produce minor coastal flooding with pockets of moderate. Significant beach erosion is likely along with numerous road closures at these times.

Flooding Rainfall
A widespread 3-6″ rainfall will occur when all the rain is finally finished by early Tuesday morning.
Lighter amounts in western valleys and on the Cape 2-4″. We have already picked up 3-5″ in many areas and will continue to add to this total in the next 36 hours with rain continuing in eastern area. Many of us woke up to flooded streets and parking lots with the heavy downpours this morning. This heavy rain not abated and has flooded many basements too unfortunately. What a mess! The rain with Periodic downpours will last into tomorrow …so we are not out of the woods yet. Rain will end after midnight Monday. Mixing with wet snow in the NW hills Monday..where it is possible for a couple inches of snow in elevations above 1000 feet.

Flooding Rivers and Streams
Rapid rises on many rivers and streams due to the copious amounts of rainfall. The water is running off into these rivers and many in central and southern New England will go above flood stage tonight into tomorrow.
The Pawtuxet, Yantic, Charles, Assabet, Shawsheen, Spicket, Piscataquog all will likely see flooding through Tuesday…some moderate. People living along these rivers should monitor and take necessary action to protect lives and property. Most importantly…stay away from the rushing water!

THE FORECAST:

Morning
Heavy Flooding Rain & Strong Winds . Temps in the 30’s to Near 40 NE winds gusting 35 to 55 mph at the coast.

Afternoon
Heavy Rain will lift north by the midday & afternoon….lingering lighter showers persist. Windy, cool and raw. Highs Near 42. NE wind 30 to 40 mph

NECN Programming Notes

NECN will be airing the famous St. Patrick’s Day Breakfast. Starting 10 AM Sunday until 12:30 PM

Also! Do you want to watch the Parade but do not feel like braving the rain & wind?
Stay Dry and watch Comcast! Turn on Channel 283….or Channel 12 for Boston/Brookline!
We will be broadcasting the Parade Live from 12:30 PM-3 PM in all it’s Irish Glory!

Heavy Rain and wind has pushed into New England Saturday Afternoon. Winds have gusted over 60 mph in Greenwich, CT. 60 mph gust at New London, CT. 56 mph gust at Marstons Mills on the Cape. These winds have been taking down trees and power lines. These damaging winds will shift from the Cape up through eastern MA during the early morning hours. A High wind warning has been issued for NE winds 35 to 45 mph, Gusts to 60+ mph. These Strong winds are penetrating into the interior hills too! The strongest gusts will occur at the coast.

Heavy rain is producing hazardous and blinding travel tonight in downpours. Rapid rises on rivers and streams with plenty of urban flooding through tomorrow morning.
Heaviest rain will be found in Eastern Massachusetts where 3-5+” could fall by the time this is all over. Lighter amounts of rain on the Cape & in western Valleys..The rain and wind will be heavy Sunday morning and gradually work it’s way up the coast into Northern New England by Midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be a very chilly raw day as highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees in the rain and wind. The morning deluge will taper to a lighter rain south for the afternoon…so conditions will become slightly better for the St. Patrick’s parade in Southie….though it will still be raining on our Parade…the worst of the storm will be winding down. Full weather Discussion Inside!

Colder air being drawn into the backside of this low with a northeast wind will be just cold enough to change any rain over to accumulating snow in the northwest hills Saturday Night…the best place for accumulating wet snow will be in the Monadnock Region, Green Mountains and the Berkshires where over 3-6″ of snow could occur above 1200′

The heaviest rain will occur in southern new England between 8 PM and 10 AM. Lingering heavy rain will continue in Northeast MA through the midday. Seas will be building off the coast to 15-25 feet offshore with this storm. This storm is stalling south of the region as it is running into a blocking area of high pressure in Canada. The differences in air pressure is creating a serious funnelling effect of wind into New England. This prolonged onshore wind will allow a piling of water during the high tides which will cause more beach erosion and the potential for minor/moderate coastal flooding. We will have to monitor each high tide cycle. Luckily we are currently in a low astronomical tide so that should keep problems at a minimum. Still a surge of 2-2.5 feet is likely with the battering waves which will help to flood your typical flood-prone areas along shore roads. The late morning high tides Sunday & Monday from Gloucester to Revere, to Scituate can expect beach erosion, road closures, flooded basements.

Lingering rain will last into through much of Monday before our Low finally pulls far enough away. High pressure will build in for the Midweek with sunshine and warming temps into the 50’s just in time for St. Patrick’s Day. Highs will climb above 60 degrees by Friday! The question is does a cold front move through to cool us Saturday?…or can we squeeze out one more day in the 60’s before our next disturbance moves through to end out next weekend?

Don’t Forget!

Daylight Savings Begins this Weekend. We will be springing ahead 1 hour before going to bed Saturday Night…officially 2 AM Sunday….Sunset Sunday 6:49 PM!

Now that is more like it! The feel of spring is in the air this weekend with temps averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. Mild daytime highs in the 40’s and 50’s and cool crisp nights below freezing is ideal weather for maple sugaring. March is known as maple sugar month after all. All over New England buckets are collecting sap from the maple trees.

With the Sun setting past 5:30 PM, The Sun is getting higher in the sky too. The stronger radiation reaching the Northen Hemisphere up to our latitudes, is really helping to eat away our snowcover. This is a good thing! We want to avoid any flooding problems with still plenty of snow in our Northwest hills. A heavy rain event with mild temperatures could create bad flooding from New England down through the Mid-Altlantic. This is something to watch out for in the coming weeks. Skiers should watch out for sunburn!
Higher elevations are closer to the stronger radiation….with the sunlight reflecting off the snow….this is a double whammy this time of year. Bring the sunscreen!

High Pressure has supplied a bone dry airmass this weekend with dewpoints in the teens, and relative humidities around 15-25%. This dry airmass, with a slight breeze helped to form scattered brushfires across New England yesterday…and could do it again today. After a cool start Sunday, more sunshine and mild temps by afternoon with highs once again in the 50’s! Some areas could approach 60 degrees in southern New England. The mild regime will last into Monday, before a cold front will bring in a cooler more typical March airmass for the midweek.

Another Pacific storm is slamming into California. This will take a while to reach us as it runs up against blocking high pressure across New England. This storm will reach us by Friday into Saturday as the low tracks south of us. Right now…it looks more wet than white, but this will be wrapping up into a potent storm providing gusty winds at the coast. It appears a series of lows will track south of us into Sunday. Temps will have a cooling trend, so by later Saturday into Sunday….some of the moisture may begin to mix with wet snow in the Northwest hills.

Looking ahead to Daylight Savings time which begins next Sunday Morning (2 AM). We will be springing ahead 1 hour.. the sun will be setting at 6:49….so gone will be the early sunsets….with more sunlight to end our days coming home from work or school!

Officially 2 more weeks until the Vernal Equinox…only 13 days away! Winter is simply runnig out of time. The winter pattern we have seen for most of the winter has broken down. The Sun is getting stronger, and there is little Arctic air in North America. The back of winter has been broken…but there is still a little more gas left in the tank which we still have to empty before we will really be into spring. So while there is not alot of cold air in the pattern, the atmophere will still remain active as we transition from winter to spring. There is still plenty of high latitude blocking, with an active subtropical jetstream delivering el-nino type storms into the nation. This is creating a split flow to the jet…which could easily come together off the east coast and direct storms up the northeast if everything comes together just right….with our next chance for storm development being next weekend.

Spring fever abounds this weekend! Enjoy it. It’s a sign of things to come, but just not immediately….in fact, we may likely not be this warm again until the end of March! Cooler air to come….just not cold. This has been the case most of the winter….cool not cold….thus snow….just not accumulating. What a meteorological headache this winter has been. Nice for Mother Nature to throw us all a bone!

With temps in the 40’s and 50’s during the day, and lows near freezing with clear cool nights, the weather is perfect for Maple Sugaring! Can you think of a better way to spend the weekend, teaching the kids what life was like in the early 1800’s?! A time when the country was being settled. A time when the kids had to work too!

Historians at Old Sturbridge Village will demonstrate maple sugar making at the Village’s own working “Sugar Camp” from 10:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays each weekend in March. Visitors can see the entire sugar-making process, from tapping the trees to “sugaring off,” and will learn why maple sugar was more commonly used than maple syrup in early New England.

Some early farm families, especially in northern New England, tapped 100 trees or more for a yield of 400 pounds of sugar each season. Women and children helped with the sugaring, and it was often a social occasion for friends and neighbors. The children’s favorite taste treat – maple snow – was actually the result of testing the syrup’s consistency before granulating it for storage, according to Old Sturbridge Village historians.

The maple sap flows best when the days are above freezing and the nights are below freezing. Each maple tree can produce up to 20 gallons of sap per tap during an average year, with each tap yielding an average of four pounds of sugar per season. It takes 40 gallons of sap (or more) to make a gallon of syrup.

The blocking pattern we have been stuck in for the past month is finally starting to break down. Through much of the month of February we were on the more favorable side of the block as we watched storms stay south. As we know, last week we got slammed with heavy snow in the mountains and damaging winds at the coast. I am pleased to say that they weather looks a little more progressive in the coming days…meaning it keeps moving along…which is what weather is supposed to do. Before we get out of this atmospheric traffic jam, there are still a few pieces of energy we have to watch. Read More of the Forecast Discussion Inside

1st, the weakening low which is sitting over us this weekend. This low has done a loop through New England providing the hurricane force winds Thursday, and is now looping back into New England this weekend as a much weaker low. It is still providing clouds and periodic snow showers…mixing with rain showers at the coast. Clouds will remain in place Sunday…with a few spotty breaks of sun. Most snow showers will remain in the North and West.

We turn our attention to energy coming out of the Gulf and off the coast of Florida. This area of low pressure will march up the east coast and eventually merge with our current decaying low off the coast of New England tonight. This low will strengthen and track just south of Nova Scotia Monday Morning. Precipitation will start off as snow with several inches possible in Maine tonight. The snow will be pushing south and arriving in Southern New England by dawn. Snow will mix over to rain during late morning- midday and afternoon hours. Gale force winds will be at the coast…but nothing nearly as strong as what we just saw….which looking back upon it was a very special and rare weather event. Many are still without power in storm stricken communities. Any rain will start to mix back over to snow with the setting sun Monday…allowing for a few more inches of snow possibly in the NW hills…before ending.
I am expecting a couple slushy inches on the front end of this. A general 1-3″ snowfall along and north of the Pike, with 3-6″ in VT, NH, and Maine with 6+” of snow in the far northern mountains.

Tuesday looks dry and seasonal…with lingering stratocumulus still around. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm…this one will likely stay well south of us.

Another Pacific storm will be taking a more southern track again by the Midweek. This storm will be pushing off the Carolina Coast Tuesday-Wednesday. Believe it or not, but the Mid-Atlantic states which have already seen their all-time snowiest winter…are likely going to see more snow. Strong winds from NJ to Delmarva Peninsula to the Carolina Capes too! The northen fringe of the snow will make it all the way up to Southern New England… for a brief burst of light snow in the Tuesday Night to Wednesday morning time frame. This storm will allow the seas to build to 10+feet well offshore…there could be some more splashover at high tide with these astronomincal high tides. By the way…Full Snow Moon tonight for the last night of February!

Pressure will be on the rise behind this departing low for skies to clear by next weekend. All in all…it looks like a quieter week, with less blocking, less extremes….as we March along through this winter…Only 20 days until spring!

Matt is running around like a chicken with his head cut off pulling together all the reports of high winds Thursday night, with multiple 70 mph gusts reported from Cape Ann to Eastport, and unconfirmed reports even higher.

And if you missed it, Joe was out in the heart of the storm on the New Hampshire and Maine seacoast overnight – watching him get blown around is great video – but it’s his statement that it;s the worst weather he’s personally experienced that tells you just how nasty things got. The cleanup from this storm will take days, and no doubt, so will the analysis of this powerful blast.