First let’s talk about what we know. Tomorrow will be a great day to get out and hit the town, do some shopping or hit the slopes. Skiing will be fantastic thanks to the extended stretch of sub-freezing temps. Resorts have been pounding the trails with manmade snow since Monday and mountains have been opening new terrain each day. So after a slow start to the season, things are really looking up for you skiers.

Of course, you’re probably wondering about the big storm working up the east coast and what impact it will have on New England. To be honest, this has been a very tricky system to predict- typically a low that develops down in the Gulf and moves north to near Delaware would have no problem continuing its trek into New England. This time around, however, there is a big blocking polar vortex anchored in the Canadian Maritimes which is deflecting the jet stream to the east. In other words, a big low pressure center to our north will eventually turn the storm out to sea. The question is, how far north does it get before it makes the turn?

Well, my latest thinking is that the low will get close enough to spread snow into southern New England, with the northern fringe reaching as far north as a Rutland-Concord-Portland line. Of course, the heaviest snow will fall in areas that are closer to the storm, especially along the south coast and the Cape/Islands. Though there may be some brief mixing with sleet and rain over the Cape, it looks like a primarily snow event for all of us thanks to a deep arctic airmass in place.

So here’s my best guess as to the timeline of events. Snow will break out from southwest to northeast Saturday evening, beginning pretty early in southern CT and reaching the Boston area around midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and continue through Sunday morning before tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. Accumulations will range from an inch or two from southern VT through central NH and southern Maine to up to a foot along the south coast. Obviously there is still time for the storm to change its track, and if it trends any closer than expected some of these 1’+ amounts may have to be adjusted northward. Regardless of the exact track, it is bound to be very windy on Sunday with gusts to 50 mph at the coast, especially the Cape and Islands. Blizzard conditions are possible for a time along with some scattered power outages.

In any event, it’s bound to be a pretty good snowstorm for us here in southern New England but nothing of the magnitude that they will have in the mid Atlantic. Some areas will see over 2’ by the time it’s over, including DC, Philly and possibly even NYC.

That’s all for now- critical updates on the way tomorrow morning with Joe. Have a great weekend everybody!

As Matt mentioned in the previous blog update, dry air working out of Canada certainly helped us out in the weather department today, keeping any rain at bay to the south and even allowing for some sunshine. It was a welcomed gift, because tomorrow will be a windy, wet and raw day for many of us as another storm moves up the east coast. Clouds will increase this evening with rain developing overnight along the south coast. The rain will spread from south to north tomorrow morning, reaching the MA/NH border by mid morning and central NH and southern Maine by the afternoon. On the northern fringe of the precipitation shield it will be marginally cold enough for the rain to mix with wet snow. From the Berkshires through southern VT and southwest NH, a slushy 1-3 inches will accumulate, especially for elevations above 1000 feet. Flakes could fall in the valleys too, but no more than a brief coating on grassy surfaces is expected as temperatures will be above freezing. In terms of the rain, a general half inch to inch is likely, especially across southeastern New England. The farther north you go, the better the chance you have of staying dry. In fact, much of northern New England will be spared from the wet weather as the storm passes well to the southeast of Nantucket.

Another concern with this impending Nor’Easter is flood potential along the coastline, especially on the east facing shores stretching from southern Maine down through the Cape & Islands, where a coastal flood warning is in effect through tomorrow night. Northeast winds will crank between 25-35 mph (sustained), gusting over 45 mph. The Cape & Islands will have the best chance of gusting over 50 mph as the storm center makes its closest pass on Sunday afternoon. Offshore, seas will be wild, building to 12-18+ feet. Combine all of this with a new moon and an astronomically high tide and we’re looking at a 1 to 2 foot storm surge. For the latest coastal flood advisories from the National Weather Service, click HERE.

Steady rain will taper to showers and drizzle by tomorrow evening. Clouds will linger into Monday morning, with gradual improvement from west to east as the day wears on. The good news? A massive ridge of high pressure will build in next week with an extended stretch of dry weather and a warming trend.

Stay dry and bundle up if you’re headed out to the Regatta or the Pats game tomorrow!