While it may be late in the Hurricane Season, there has still been plenty to watch in the tropics, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico over the past several days. Tropical Storm Ida is expected to make landfall overnight tonight. For a full forecast discussion, visit the National Hurricane Center homepage, and for the latest watches and warnings along the Gulf Coast, click here.

In terms of Ida’s impact on New England, Canadian high pressure will build into the northeast, keeping “Ida” to our south and the rain at bay. This also means fair weather and seasonable temperatures will be the rule through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, 3-6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected along the Gulf Coast, with rainfall extending northward into the Tennessee River Valley. The Virginia and Carolina coastlines will be battered with rain, wind and waves as Ida makes her transition to an extra tropical cyclone, eventually being absorbed by a cold front sweeping off the Virgina coast.

Tropical Storm Henri (pronounced ahn-REE) has formed in the Atlantic, but is expected to be short-lived. The National Hurricane Center has issued the storm’s first Public Advisory…

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 1…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

…TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED…

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI…
THE EIGHTH NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST…
2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES…965
KM…EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR…
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HENRI AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85
KM…NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…17.8N 54.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

For more information regarding Henri, see the National Hurricance Center website.

Flooding rains…and now damaging wind…are causing problems for New Englanders. The following reports were received from Skywarn Spotter Coordinator Rob Macedo for the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA. As of 4 PM, the highest rainfall total thus far (and still coming down) was 3.98″ in Yarmouth, MA, and the strongest wind gust was 61 mph at Horseshoe Shoals, Nantucket.

Continue reading for more damage reports and rainfall totals.

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
BREWSTER 4.69 405 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
CENTERVILLE 4.12 518 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
EAST SANDWICH 4.10 355 PM 8/29 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST FALMOUTH 4.00 409 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
YARMOUTH 3.98 311 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
HYANNIS 3.44 313 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
WEST FALMOUTH 3.43 400 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
WEST WAREHAM 3.29 313 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
SOUTH YARMOUTH 2.70 215 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
HARWICH 2.25 215 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
NEW BEDFORD 5.05 530 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
ACUSHNET 3.53 350 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
TAUNTON 2.05 511 PM 8/29 SPOTTER

…DUKES COUNTY…
WEST TISBURY 3.22 315 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…ESSEX COUNTY…
IPSWICH 2.48 410 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
SALEM 2.29 319 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…FRANKLIN COUNTY…
CHARLEMONT 2.05 245 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…HAMPSHIRE COUNTY…
GOSHEN 2.11 240 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
CHESTERFIELD 2.06 845 AM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…
ARLINGTON 2.22 318 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
WESTFORD 2.02 315 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
PEPPERELL 2.03 454 PM 8/29 SPOTTER

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
NANTUCKET 3.34 310 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
SIASCONSETT 3.06 200 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
WEST PLYMOUTH 5.00 520 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
DUXBURY 3.88 500 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
WAREHAM 2.62 203 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
PLYMOUTH 2.55 313 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
HALIFAX 2.36 445 PM 8/29 SPOTTER

…WORCESTER COUNTY…
NORTH GRAFTON 2.36 312 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
ROYALSTON 2.23 307 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
STERLING 2.10 140 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
LEOMINSTER 2.00 156 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

NEW HAMPSHIRE
…CHESHIRE COUNTY…
SWANZEY 2.16 305 PM 8/29 EMERGENCY MGR
KEENE 2.15 246 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
ROXBURY 2.01 319 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

…HILLSBOROGH COUNTY…
PETERBOROUGH 2.47 316 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO
GOFFSTOWN 2.14 317 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
WILTON 2.12 317 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

RHODE ISLAND
..KENT COUNTY…
WEST WARWICK 2.05 504 PM 8/29 GENERAL PUBLIC

…NEWPORT COUNTY…
MIDDLETOWN 3.50 354 PM 8/29 SPOTTER
LITTLE COMPTON 3.03 317 PM 8/29 SPOTTER

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
BLOCK ISLAND ARPT 3.04 315 PM 8/29 AWOS
CHARLESTOWN 2.08 315 PM 8/29 AMATEUR RADIO

DAMAGE AND FLOODING REPORT

0131 PM FLOOD FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

FLOODED BASEMENT ON COTUIT ROAD.

0232 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RUSSELL MILLS ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0310 PM FLOOD NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RIVER ROAD NEAR SYLVIA STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0315 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

HORSENECK ROAD AND FIELDS IN AREA FLOODED OUT AND
IMPASSABLE. OLD WESTPORT ROAD FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF
WATER.

0337 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EVERETT 42.41N 71.05W
08/29/2009 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON FERNAL STREET.

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 6A IN YARMOUTHPORT.

0355 PM FLOOD FAIRHAVEN 41.65N 70.82W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

INTERSECTION OF GREEN AND BRIDGE STREETS HAD FLOODING
OVER THE SIDEWALKS.

0357 PM FLOOD WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

CRANBERRY HIGHWAY NEAR AUTO STORE IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING AND 2 LANES NEAR WALMART FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER.

0403 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
08/29/2009 NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HUMMOCK POND ROAD.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TIVERTON 41.65N 71.20W
08/29/2009 NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON TUCKER STREET.

0406 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

2.5 FEET OF WATER FLOODING STAFFORD SQUARE.

0412 PM FLOOD SANDWICH 41.76N 70.50W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

STORM DRAIN OVERFLOWED AND FLOODED YARD AND BASEMENT OF A
HOME.

0428 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DANVERS 42.57N 70.95W
08/29/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON MAPLE STREET.

0437 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

WEST BOUND LANE OF ROEBSON STREET FLOODED OUT.

Our team watched with intrigue as Tropical Storm Danny was completely absorbed by a storm developing off the coast of North Carolina early Saturday morning, verifying the forecast for a hybrid storm to explode over the Gulf Stream and churn northward. That spun heavy tropical rain into the region from south to north, resulting in localized flooding, and by the time the rain ends, we expect to find some amounts of half a foot!

In this image, the colors indicate temperature as measured by the infrared satellite, where colder temperatures indicate taller, stronger clouds, often associated with thunderstorms. Notice the white coloring at the center of the mass of thunderstorms from 9 AM Saturday…that white coloring is at the end of the temperature scale, indicating -80 degrees Celsius. In other words, the tops of the thunderstorm clouds when Danny became a strong hybrid storm were -112 degrees Farenheit!! This was an impressive development of a mass of thunderstorms that would all move north to douse eastern and central parts of Southern New England with substantial rainfall. In fact, visible satellite imagery shows little bumps in the center of the thunderstorm mass as Danny neared New England…these represent “overshooting tops” - thunderstorm clouds that grew so tall and vigorous that they broke through the atmospheric cap where clouds shouldn’t even develop! This was all evidence of a very impressive display of a rapidly blooming hybrid storm.

As of midday, rainfall totals have crossed two inches for most Southern New England communities, and will continue climbing until rain shuts down during the late afternoon.

As for wind associated with this hybrid storm, radar indicated a rotating center elevated from the ground, and wind in excess of 60 mph just a few thousand feet above the surface. I actually issued this post at 2:35 PM and admitted defeat on damaging wind for the Cape, having received no reports at that time, and explaining how seriously we take it when the forecast doesn’t pan out. I’m updating this post at 4:35, after the core of damaging wind DID move through, and verified the forecast for 60+ mph gusts when Horseshoe Shoals, Nantucket, gusted to 61 mph! Trees have been downed and power knocked out. Those who took action to tie down boats and bring in patio furniture undoubtedly have saved damage from being done. Up and down the coastline, winds have been approaching or exceeding Tropical Storm force gusts of 39 mph, with isolated to widely scattered tree and power line damage elsewhere. The wind will slowly subside Saturday evening.

The storm center will zip by Saturday evening with rain and wind ending last on the Outer Cape and Downeast Maine, then drier air aloft will allow for sunshine and temperatures rising to near 80 on Sunday. An upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front may touch off a shower or thunderstorm for some communities.

Drier and comfortable weather is expected to begin the week.

Matt

Tropical Storm Danny still looks rather unimpressive on satellite imagery as of Friday afternoon. The storm circulation is well-defined, but consists mostly of bubbling, fair weather cumulus clouds, rather than the towering thunderstorms usually seen with a tropical storm. This certainly means a weaker storm in the short-term, and greatly diminishes the risk of hurricane winds that exceed 74 mph on Saturday, but yesterday’s forecast for damaging wind along the coast with a storm track crossing Cape Cod remains intact…

After a frosty start in the valleys of the far North Country Friday morning, temperatures remained cool in most of New England with the combination of Canadian air holding tough, a relatively light wind meaning that air stayed in place, and cloud cover moving in. Meanwhile, areas of rain and embedded downpours have been blossoming through far Southern New England and gradually moving northward, and will continue expanding northward with time Friday evening and night. Heavy rain is expected to blossom across most of New England from south to north overnight, though Maine may hold out the longest before Saturday morning rain advances. The radar imagery today is quite impressive, with multiple boundaries of airmasses and atmospheric energy centers touching off large areas of thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Northeast, south to Florida! Meanwhile, bands of tropical moisture are already feeding in from the Atlantic Ocean around the west side of Danny’s circulation.

With cool and dry air already in place, temperatures will fall as rain develops, dropping into the 50s Friday night for many spots, except in far Southern and Southeastern New England, where a steady southeast wind will carry increasingly warm and humid tropical air up from the Atlantic Ocean. Even on Saturday, this warm and humid air will have a difficult time penetrating deep into the interior, and that difference in airmasses will likely result in an enhanced band of exceptionally heavy rainfall from Central Massachusetts through Central and Southern New Hampshire and into Southern Maine. In all spots, except for lesser amounts in far Northwestern New England, three to five inches of rain seem likely Friday night and Saturday, but in the area of enhanced rainfall, over six inches of rain seems possible, resulting in flash flooding of streams and creeks that will lead to some road washouts, and by Saturday night and Sunday morning could lead to some river flooding as well, as the rain runs off into the river basins. Of course, for all spots across New England, the periods of heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday will make for treacherous travel conditions at times, resulting in some street and urban flooding, and an increased risk of hydroplaning.

Of course, wind will be another concern with Tropical Storm Danny. As of mid-afternoon on Friday, no watches or warnings have been issued pertaining to wind from the National Weather Service. As best I can tell, this is due to a concern of whether Danny will technically be tropical or non-tropical. Here in the NECN Weather Center, we remain focused on the effects of this storm for the public, and acknowledge that it will likely end up a “hybrid” storm - that is, a storm that exhibits both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. This actually is a worse scenario for New England than if the storm were completely tropical in nature. The reason for this, is because a tropical system passing over Chatham would keep its core of wind completely to the east of the center, meaning there wouldn’t be much wind threat across the remainder of New England. A non-tropical system, however, as we all know from the many nor’easters and other large coastal storms we’ve received, produces strong wind on many or all sides of the storm. In this case, the storm will be a mix of both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, meaning the wind field will likely be expanding as the storm moves over New England, though also is unlikely to be nearly as strong on the southwest side as it will be on the north and east sides of the storm center. So…with an anticipated track across the Cape, that would put the strongest wind field across the Outer Cape and Islands, and then again in Downeast Maine, where gusts greater than 60 mph will be possible on Saturday afternoon, when the storm makes its passage, resulting in wind damage to trees, limbs and powerlines, and tossing lightweight objects like patio furniture. Along the remainder of the eastern New England coastlines, winds still seem likely to gust above 45 mph, which will cause far less damage, but certainly still can bring down widely scattered trees and power lines. I’ve heard from some folks today who’ve wondered exactly why it is we’re forecasting a hybrid storm of this nature here at NECN. I should make it clear that every forecast is a gamble, but we always make our forecasts based on the most sound scientific reasoning we can derive. In this instance, we’re witnessing an amazing combination of the circulation of Tropical Storm Danny, deep tropical air from the Atlantic, warm and humid air from the Mid-Atlantic States, a surge of exceptionally humid air with a strong energetic upper level system from the Gulf of Mexico, another strong energy center out of the Midwest and moving east through the Ohio Valley, and finally, a clash between all of this warmth and humidity, with the cool and dry fall air that we’ve had in place. All of these players will converge along the Eastern Seaboard Friday night through Saturday, and serve as fuel for the developing storm. In fact, hybrid storms such as this one - if it develops as planned - usually do not obey the normal rules of storms. That is, we still expect the storm to strengthen on its way northward to New England, and are curious to see just how much it strengthens. While we are certainly hitting the wind potential hard, there is actually excellent agreement on a eye-type feature developing with this storm. We’d like to see 12 more hours of guidance products before biting off of this potential, but if that solution verifies, the wind core near the center would be even more intense. For more on how this forecast has come to be, you can check out the in-depth weather page of my personal blog at www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ where I’ve posted technical discussions with more scientific description.

The timing of the strongest wind should be focused on Saturday, from late morning in Southeast MA, through the day along the eastern coastal plain of MA, NH and Southern ME, and the late afternoon to evening along Midcoast and Downeast ME. Although that’s the timing for the core of strongest wind, the wind will actually start freshening from the southeast along our coastlines all night Friday night, reaching over 30 mph gusts by Saturday dawn, and over 40 mph (tropical storm force gusts) by mid-morning the latest. From there, the wind should ramp up to our expected values expressed above.

The storm should keep moving, and both the rain and wind will taper across Southern New England during the late afternoon…early evening at the latest. Farther northeast through Maine, it will take into the first part of Saturday night for things to wind down.

Sunday is still expected to feature an upper level disturbance moving across New England from the west (hybrid storm Danny will be long gone), capitalizing on some lingering moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere to create a few thunderstorms and showers, though the day will be much, much better than Saturday. Drier air is expected for the start of next week.

Stay safe, spread the word on the storm (the lack of official watches and warnings to this point has me concerned about getting the word out), refer folks to this blog post and we’ll keep you posted. Coverage on NECN Saturday morning begins at 5 AM, and from 9 AM to 1 PM we’ll be streaming live right here on WeatherNewEngland.com as the TV side covers the Kennedy Funeral. At some point during the afternoon, I’ll likely head out into the storm with the FlipCam and grab some HD video and keep shipping it back.

Matt

You can find more weather information from Matt, view his live stream with live chat (when actively streaming), or connect with him on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace on his personal website, MattNoyes.net.

All eyes are on Tropical Storm Danny, which will likely morph into an extratropical “hybrid” storm over the course of its evolution, bringing New England a little bit of everything - rain, wind and waves. Matt will be posting a full written discussion soon, but in the meantime, check out the video below for details on the entire forecast.

There are a few issues to contend with today, largely focused on the track of Danny, though we’re expecting a frost for some New Englanders overnight tonight….

From a meteorological perspective, we’ve seen drier, cooler, autumnal air spill into New England today, and the result is pleasantly perfect sunshine. Thursday morning temperatures began in the 40s across Northern New England and 50s to lower 60s farther south, and will rebound into the 60s and 70s, respectively. An active northwest wind will continue through the day as a large dome of high pressure, or fair weather, builds from James Bay across Quebec and Ontario. Later Thursday, a bubble of this high pressure dome will break free from the primary cell and move across New England overnight Thursday night, allowing skies to remain clear and winds to become nearly calm. With dry air in place, this is the perfect setup for radiational cooling, as daytime heat escapes into space and temperatures fall into the 50s south, 40s central and north, and even the middle to upper 30s in the deeper valleys of the far North Country, where scattered frost is possible from northern New Hampshire to northern Maine, and a frost advisory is in effect for northwestern Maine!

This bubble of high pressure will bring sunshine and fair, fall-like weather to New England again on Friday, but this same fair weather cell will prove problematic later in the forecast. By Friday evening, with the dome of fair weather drifing toward the Canadian Maritimes, barometric pressure will start falling across New England. The combination of a strengthening and northward moving Danny will enhance the fall of barometric pressure, resulting a broad east and southeast wind across the coast of New England and much of the Eastern third of the region. This wind will increase overnight Friday night as moisture streams in aloft, simultaneously, meaning a combination of developing rain, heavy at times, along with wind gusts up to 40 mph (tropical storm force is 39 mph) cranking up during the overnight, especially around or after midnight. Once this wind starts cranking, it will gradually increase throughout Saturday as Danny draws closer. All the while, the substantial slug of tropical warmth and moisture colliding with our leftover fall air will crank out bands of heavy rain throughout Saturday, with three to five inches of rain expected in most of Central and Southern New England, especially away from Cape Cod. Farther north, a general one to three inches are expected. This much rain will likely produce street flooding, stream flooding (flash flooding) and even some river flooding Saturday through Saturday night.

All the while, it continues to look as though Danny will strengthen or maintain his intensity while moving north and interacting with the clashing cool and warm airmasses, deep tropical moisture, intense energy aloft, and a very warm ocean to our south. All of this implies that a core of hurricane force wind (in excess of 74 mph) will continue to follow the storm, with an expanding area of tropical storm force winds (39+ mph). Since the strongest wind - and therefore the most significant damage - will follow the storm’s center, the Cape seems most vulnerable to hurricane force gusts, though this will depend heavily on storm track. A track east or southeast of the Cape would likely mean widespread tropical storm force wind, but little or no hurricane force winds. A track farther west - over the Cape or even farther west - would spread the most damaging wind farther inland.

Mariners have been busy today checking on and securing their boats and moorings, pulling or reinforcing lobster pots, putting on additional fenders and chafe gear, and moving boats to more secure locations from exposed spots.

Saturday night, the tropical storm force wind will spread along the Maine coast, departing Sunday morning from eastern Maine as the storm leaves behind enough dry air for some sunshine, but also enough lingering low-level moisture that an incoming energetic disturbance from the west will likely spark additional thunderstorms before more substantial drying occurs on Monday.

There is another tropical disturbance looking impressive in the Central Atlantic, but we’ll take them one at a time!

For those of you who enjoy a technical discussion of the weather, I issued one yesterday on my personal webpage and will do another later Thursday. I’ll also examine broadcasting uncertainty in that post. You can find in on the In-Depth Weather Page of MattNoyes.net.

Thanks for checking in!
Matt

You can find more weather information from Matt, view his live stream with live chat (when actively streaming), or connect with him on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace on his personal website, MattNoyes.net.

Matt will soon be posting his full discussion, but we’ve got his latest video forecast to tide you over. You can catch the latest forecasted track of Tropical Storm Danny — including the infamous Cone of Probability. Check it out:

While the passing of Senator Ted Kennedy dominates the headlines, an important weather potential looms for this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has now named Tropical Storm Danny, and put it on a course to pass over Cape Cod and the Islands as a Category 1 hurricane.